Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 23.239510 24.591165 26.017704 27.641915 29.447999 31.404131 33.695857
2026-01-18 21.244289 23.090620 25.133634 27.584363 30.475212 33.817325 38.035557
2026-01-25 19.807349 21.884634 24.251829 27.188470 30.792033 35.152457 40.965944
2026-02-01 18.677495 20.893632 23.476515 26.766180 30.933345 36.170583 43.492239
2026-02-08 17.722167 20.020409 22.747556 26.296184 30.911949 36.904140 45.640510
2026-02-15 17.041572 19.423850 22.297593 26.112260 31.200226 38.016910 48.383384
2026-02-22 16.733809 19.255918 22.352825 26.554609 32.318652 40.325723 53.128837
2026-03-01 16.159854 18.719869 21.902832 26.289341 32.431054 41.195848 55.762641
2026-03-08 15.449036 17.976960 21.146692 25.561834 31.831740 40.950961 56.535716
2026-03-15 14.961248 17.497878 20.709165 25.237168 31.773572 41.495000 58.676334
2026-03-22 14.824635 17.462650 20.848021 25.705924 32.887984 43.930273 64.478833
2026-03-29 14.631184 17.342070 20.862477 25.993012 33.742588 46.026938 70.041084
2026-04-05 14.416958 17.196819 20.851062 26.263112 34.625345 48.326217 76.635504
2026-04-12 14.113103 16.920579 20.647732 26.241069 35.047917 49.888662 82.093337
2026-04-19 13.715913 16.503259 20.229437 25.873835 34.882083 50.377011 85.266469
2026-04-26 13.337085 16.098392 19.812604 25.486186 34.652409 50.718738 88.175670
2026-05-03 12.966125 15.693042 19.380419 25.053776 34.317493 50.825930 90.540106
2026-05-10 12.698725 15.421832 19.128681 24.884464 34.411516 51.758558 95.274589
2026-05-17 12.622614 15.411394 19.247646 25.291567 35.516828 54.804719 106.784721
2026-05-24 12.357224 15.128850 18.962210 25.047483 35.462192 55.484406 111.656072
2026-05-31 11.979606 14.680134 18.422007 24.377337 34.609883 54.411152 110.753408
2026-06-07 11.725299 14.399364 18.120336 24.077918 34.409024 54.711912 114.472479
2026-06-14 11.690341 14.426384 18.270521 24.510153 35.563538 58.091369 130.174165